GTI Launch

This event will focus on highlighting the findings of the Ecological Threat Report of 2023 and engaging with IEP Ambassadors from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. IEP Serge Stroobants (Director - Europe & MENA, IEP) and Milton Nyamadzawo (Director - Southern Africa, IEP) will lead the presentation, followed by an interactive quiz and subsequent Q&A session. Mr. Serge Stroobants, Director for Europe and MENA Mr. Milton Nyamadzawo, Director of Southern Africa

Client: UNDP, Ethiopia Background: The fundamental purpose of this research is to produce a new body of evidence on the economic impacts and trends in these impacts of violent extremism in the UNDP’s 16 focus countries, including spending on counter-terrorism efforts, and how these impacts affect  conditions of living for women and men.  Focus counties include countries include Nigeria, Tanzania, Central African Republic, Niger, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Tunisia, Morocco, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Libya  Research questions included:  What is the macro-economic impact of violent extremism in focus countries, and does this impact differ for men and women?  How has terrorism affected investment, economic growth, aid, and social spending in focus countries, and do these effects affect men and women’s living conditions differently  Is there a crowding out effect on social and development programs both from a domestic spend and foreign aid view point? How does this affect men and women’s living conditions?  What is the cost of combating the financing of terrorism programs, and how does this cost compare to the effectiveness of the programs to date? How does this cost affect the conditions of living for men and women? Solution: Research to generate empirical evidence from desk-based research and fieldwork that addressed the priority areas outlined in the ToR:  Extent to which violent extremism has affected investments and economic growth in the selected, with a specific objective to demonstrate if there were differentiated impacts on investments and economic sectors where men and women were active.  Impact on spending in the military and security sector and crowding out effect on social and development programs, including an analysis of the gender aspects of the impacts.  Assess the cost of Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) with a focus on rapid money transfers and the impact on this cost on the living conditions for women and men.  The research design analysed evidence at a macro-level for all 16 focus countries of the UNDP’s “Preventing and Responding to Violent Extremism in Africa: A Development Approach”, and in addition analysed at a deeper level evidence in an epicentre country and a spill-over country. This combined approach, using quantitative and qualitative data, will allow the development of a thorough body of research where the mechanisms underlying macro-level trends can be unpacked.  The fundamental approach to costing the economic impact of violent extremism will utilise and build on IEP’s methodology for the economic valuation of violence and violence containment: a cost accounting method developed and refined over a ten year period, which to date is the world’s leading assessment of the cost of conflict and terrorism.  Macro level statistics were collected and analysed from reputable data sources including the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), the World Bank (WB) and the International Labor Office (ILO). In addition in case study countries, statistics were collected from national statistical offices where applicable.  Qualitative data was generated during a field visit, through focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews.  The 16 countries of focus for the UNDP’s project on violent extremism formed the basis of  the macro-level analysis and data collection, to the extent it was possible. In addition to this, the research will focus on two case-study countries – Nigeria, as an “epi-center” country, and Kenya as a “spill-over” country. Nigeria and Kenya are strongholds of Boko Haram and Al-Shabbab, two of the largest and well resourced terrorist organisations in the world. Additionally, Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy, while Kenya ranks 9th in 2016, meaning that the magnitude of any economic impact from violent extremism is potentially huge with resulting implications for living conditions for their populations.  Outcomes: IEP produced a 50 page report which highlighted key findings and policy implications, emphasising the need for integrated strategies to address the economic repercussions of violent extremism and promote sustainable development in the African context.  The study examined the impact of attacks on infrastructure and physical damage, formal and informal economies, and of 'security spending' on development processes. The report covered various aspects related to the economic consequences of violent extremism in Africa. It examined the financial ramifications of terrorism on the continent, providing insights into the economic consequences resulting from acts of violent extremism. It also discussed the relationship between violent extremism and the formal economy, offering insights into how acts of extremism impact and interact with established economic structures on the continent. The report explored the dynamics between expenditures on security and development, shedding light on the trade-offs and implications for economic development in the context of combating violent extremism on the continent. 

Background: Jude Kakuba, a Rotarian from Uganda had been trying to improve levels of literacy in a school in Kampala for two years, with little success. After attending a Positive Peace workshop, Jude decided to look at his own project through the lens of Positive Peace. He identified a number of ways to address his project in a systemic way and engaged his local Rotary club in supporting a new initiative focusing on activating all the Pillars of Positive Peace. How Positive Peace was implemented: The Kakuba Literacy Project implemented an intervention representing each Positive Peace Pillar. Well-Functioning Government: The involvement of local community leaders in the planning and implementation of the project encouraged community members to participate fully in all activities. Local stakeholders were invited to form a committee to oversee the project. Equitable Distribution of Resources: School supplies were distributed equally, unrelated to a student’s ability to pay or perform in class. An example of this was the supply of sanitary pads to school girls, which improved attendance rates. Good Relations with Neighbours: Fruit trees and vegetables were planted to reduce student pilfering from neighbouring orchards and fields because they were hungry. More importantly, this was accompanied by a porridge project, which provided porridge for pupils at lunchtime. This is what mainly contributed to improved academic performance; better nutrients provided the students with the energy to concentrate in the afternoons. It also led to higher attendances as parents knew that the children would get fed and didn’t have to look for their own food. High Levels of Human Capital: The provision of educational materials served as a driving force to attract more students and also improved creativity and practical learning. The provision of medical services also ensure that members of the community were at a low risk of falling ill. This improved productivity and punctuality amongst pupils in school. Acceptance of the Rights of Others: After identifying monthly drops in attendance by girls, sanitary pads were provided on a monthly basis. The provision of sanitary products as well as hygiene training further supported higher enrolment rates of girls into school. Low Levels of Corruption: A separate committee on transparency was formed to monitor funds, donated items, as well as requests for accountability on how funds are used. All donated materials were branded as a gift to the community, increasing the sense of ownership and accountability. This has helped the community keep regular stock of items and improving accessibility to donated items at no cost. Sound Business Environment: New classrooms were constructed exclusively using local materials and skills. This increased household income in the community. Free Flow of Information: The project partnered with a local radio station that used the local language to spread news of the project and provide the community with regular updates. This made it easier to disseminate information amongst members of the community concerning projects. It also helped with proper monitoring and supervision of project activities by relaying information in a timely manner Outcomes: Within two years of running the programme, pupil enrolment more than doubled and literacy levels significantly improved. The number of students attending the school jumped from 327 to 805. Furthermore, the percentage of students earning top grades increased from 30 per cent to 62 per cent. The original objective of the programme was to improve student conditions, enrolment rates and academic performance. The project was later expanded to include enhancing community resilience by increasing levels of Positive Peace in and around the school system.